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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Focus Features
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 12, 2023): Indigenous representation in the Academy has been virtually non-existent in the history of cinema.
There have been four Indigenous women nominated for acting in Oscars history – Lead actress with Merle Oberon for “The Dark Angel” (1935), Keisha Castle-Hughes in “Whale Rider” (2003) and Yalitza Aparicio for “Roma” (2018), and supporting actress with Jocelyne LaGarde for “Hawaii” (1966).
Along with never winning an acting Oscar, an Indigenous actress from the U.S. has never won a SAG or Critics Choice prize or even been nominated by those groups.
With Gladstone’s exit from the supporting actress category, this race has blown wide open with many potentials hoping to take her once-occupied frontrunner spot. With “Killers” predicted to be one of the top awards players, we can’t count out any of Gladstone’s Indigenous co-stars to make a play for acting love, notably Cara Jade Myers, who plays her sister Anna. She was named one of Variety’s 10 Actors to Watch.
She’ll have stiff competition with Oscar winners like Julianne Moore (“May December”) and Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) in the mix, along with breakouts like Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) and the overdue Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”).
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, with nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon) **
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- Erika Alexander — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
Also In Contention
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Issa Rae — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Maya Hawke — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
- Audra McDonald — “Origin” (Neon)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Patti LuPone — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix) **
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Jodie Comer – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)
- Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jurnee Smollett – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Roberta Colindrez — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Perla De La Rosa — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Molly Shannon — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Celeste O’Connor — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Zoe Lister-Jones — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Tiffany Haddish — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Brooklynn MacKinzie — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Sarayu Blue — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Veronica Falcón — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Allison Oliver — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) **
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathy Bates – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Ruby Cruz — — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Havana Rose Liu — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Kaia Gerber — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jessica Chastain – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- Audra McDonald — “Origin” (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **
- Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Natalie Portman – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Marion Cotillard – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Noémie Merlant – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Andrea Riseborough – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Ronkẹ Adékoluẹjo — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lucy Boynton — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Minnie Driver — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Rachel House — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kaimana — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elisabeth Moss — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Celia Weston – “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Olivia Colman – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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