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Hollywood insiders explain why Barbie’s box office has been hard to predict. Barbie’s box office predictions have been a huge topic in the movie industry for over a year now, as these conversations got especially heated when it was revealed that the comedy would release on the same day as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Since then, the Barbie and Oppenheimer battle has been a source of public and industry intrigue alike, which will finally come to a head this weekend. However, even the box office projections for Barbie have been changing drastically, with the latest predictions doubling the original numbers.
Recently, entertainment journalist Matthew Belloni breaks down why Barbie has been such an impossible movie for box office experts to predict. Speaking on his podcast The Town with Matthew Belloni, Belloni first situated Barbie in the post-COVID landscape, where the cis bringing audiences back to movie theaters who had not previously been interested. Belloni and guest David Herrin discussed the concept of “unaided awareness,” which is a box office prediction tool of surveying people with the question “what movies are you aware of?” without naming titles. Herrin mentioned that the “unaided awareness for Barbie is enormous, the biggest we’ve ever seen.” Herrin went on to explain:
“You’ve got this unaided awareness that’s enormous, and points to a 200 or 250 million dollar opening, then you’ve got over here the older women that are not showing super high levels of interest, that suggest an opening around $80 million. Is it 80? Is it 220? You’ve got presales that speak to around 180, and that’s why all of these online pundits have no idea what this movie is going to open to!”
Where Barbie’s Box Office Predictions Stand Now
The problem with these box office predictors is, according to The Town, the complexity behind Barbie’s massive “unaided awareness” pull. The Margot Robbie-led movie has name recognition, but it is unclear how its “zeitgeist” status is attributed directly to the enormity and reach of its marketing campaign, let alone whether its presale is enough to determine its success.
These questions will be answered soon as Barbie finally faces its box office opening. While Barbie predictions are highly varied, most pundits have situated the movie in the range of a $100 million to $130 million opening. If this happens, it will blow its main competition, Oppenheimer, for the No. 1 spot. Oppenheimer’s predictions are currently set between a $30 and $45 million opening, meaning it would take enormous efforts for the Nolan biopic to come anywhere close to Barbie.
What is often ignored in this Barbie vs. Oppenheimer debate, as Belloni briefly alludes to in his podcast, is another factor with Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 in theaters. The seventh Mission Impossible movie will be in only its second weekend come the releases of Barbie and Oppenheimer. So, whether it opens to $80 million or $220 million (or anywhere in between), Barbie will have to compete in a huge July box office battle, and its forthcoming release may allow experts to use the movie as a precedent to determine future box office.
Source: The Town with Matthew Belloni
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